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        September industrial profits decline narrowed by the end of the year before the rate cut is still a probability event

        Date:15.10.29

        In October 27th, the National Bureau of statistics released data show that the total profits of industrial enterprises in September year-on-year decline of 0.1%, a decline of more than August narrowed 8.7 percentage points. The first 9 months of above scale industrial enterprises total profit fell 1.7%, a decline of more than 8 months ago, narrowed 0.2 percentage points.
        National Bureau of industry division Dr. He Ping said that the September industrial profits decline significantly narrowed the there are three main reasons, one is financial cost growth is slowing down, second, the business tax and surcharges substantially reduced, and the third is the purchasing price of raw materials fell increase.
        According to He Ping introduction, in September, due to exchange rate losses than in August significantly reduced, the industrial enterprises above the scale of financial expenses grew 1.9%, the growth rate down 22 percentage points higher than in August. In addition, in September last year, some oil and gas companies change way Utrecht Special Petroleum Proceeds accounting, business taxes and additional substantial increase, this year formed a higher base. Affected by this, in September this year, the business tax and surcharges fell 9.9%, while in August, an increase of 3.3%.
        "The reasons for the decline of industrial profit is income and cost between Lari." Minsheng securities macroeconomic researcher Zhang Yu told the "Securities Daily" said in an interview with reporters.
        Statistics show that in September the purchase of raw materials prices fell 6.8%, a decline of 0.2 percentage points higher than in August. The factory price of products fell by 5.9%, a decline of flat with August.
        Zhang Yu said that from the perspective of the industry structure, the current overall poor, weak internal differentiation. The upper reaches of the mining industry as well as the black metal processing industry is still poor performance, the middle reaches of the manufacturing sector due to lower cost performance, poor downstream terminal consumption is still under pressure.
        He Ping said that despite the decline in industrial profits in September narrowed, but in the case of downward pressure on the industrial economy continues to increase, the efficiency of enterprises is still not optimistic. First, the company's main business profitability is still declining. September, above scale industrial enterprises operating profit fell 2.1%. Operating profit is the income from the main business in the total profit. Second, product sales decline.
        "In September, the main business income of 0.5% year-on-year decline in industrial enterprises, is the first decline over the years, indicates that the enterprise production and management difficulties intensified. In addition, sluggish market demand, prices continued to decline, high cost, inventory and accounts receivable continued high are restricting the production and operation of industrial enterprises to improve." He Ping said.
        From the point of view of monetary policy, the fourth quarter is expected to continue to relax. Zhang Yu said that due to the real interest rate is still high, the central bank is likely to through down-regulation of the nominal interest rate to lower real interest rates, if the CPI and PPI downturn than expected, the future rate cuts is still possible, taking into account foreign exchange trend of decline, the base currency gap need to drop quasi hedge, not to drop quasi number more than once.
        "From the point of view of fiscal policy, will continue to revitalize the stock, lead to early precipitation of financial capital flows to the real economy, at the same time with the financial capital and social capital and leverage. Is expected in the fourth quarter for the year and "7" is relatively high, steady growth will not cop-out." Zhang Yu told the "Securities Daily" reporter.

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